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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd